Dennis’ Tidbits

By DENNIS McTIGHE

July 11, 2017

Swell news, compliments of Hurricane Eugene

By the time you’re reading the latest edition of Stu News on Tuesday morning, don’t be at all surprised if you see an almost endless supply of 6-8 foot bombs from the south at 10-11 second intervals marching into our local beaches compliments of major (Category 3 ) hurricane Eugene who as of 9 p.m. on Sunday is packing winds of 120 mph with gusts up to 128, as he’s making all the right moves in the right place here in the Eastern Pacific.

Eugene was given his name late last Friday morning with sustajned winds of 40 mph. He was born just inside our swell window about 650 miles SSW of the southern tip of Baja. He promptly began moving to the NW at 8-10 mph. He continued to intensify all day on Friday while maintaining his forward movement to the NW at a perfect forward speed of 10 mph. By Saturday morning, Eugene had intensified to a high end category 1 storm with sustained winds of 94 mph and by that afternoon he graduated up to a high end Category 2 packing winds of 108 mph while maintaining his NW forward movement at 10 mph even veering slightly more to the NNW. 

By early Sunday, Eugene was now a major Cat 3 storm with winds of 115 mph still moving forward to between the NW and NNW at 10-12 mph. At 9 p.m. he’s still a Cat. 3 and is still moving in the same direction. He is now about 450 miles SW of Baja’s tip and is in a perfect spot to send his swells our way. I would say his first scouts should arrive by Monday morning and the surf should steadily increase throughout the day. 

It normally takes about 72 hours for waves to arrive here from where the storm is located. I’m thinkin’ the swell should peak from Tuesday through maybe Thursday as he moved fairly slow for a storm of this magnitude, as normal forward speed is roughly 12-15 mph. He’s almost the prototype of what a tropical system should do to give us most of the wave energy, as he got strong, was in the right part of our swell window the whole time and he moved in the necessary direction to fling his energy out of his NE quadrant. It might turn out to be (and I stress might ) the best Baja swell since late August of 2014 from hurricane Marie. I hope I’m not too far off base on this one as I’ve been following the behavior of Eastern Pacific tropical systems for almost 50 years. If I do goof this one up then you don’t know where I live or my phone number. For sure I’ll be hiding! 

See y’all on Friday, ALOHA!

 

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Allison Rael, Barbara Diamond, Diane Armitage, Dianne Russell, Laura Buckle, Maggi Henrikson, Marrie Stone, Samantha Washer and Suzie Harrison are staff writers.

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